I noticed on one of the Holloway forums they were discussing the psychics Kelly and Daniel and their involvement in this case. They never seemed to be picked up by the U.S. media at all. Some of their suggestions regarding Jug Twitty were rather shocking I must admit. But then not being a big fan of Jugs I would not exactly put anything passed him. On the other hand other things they mention I have wondered about. I noticed Jan that you included them in the book, but seemed to dismiss them too as opportunists or perhaps not credible. I wondered if you or anyone had any thoughts they might want to share on them or if it might be a topic for discussion.

Many challenging cases have been helped by psychics by the way.

Back in Aruba, and it is as beautiful as ever. First time I have been able to approach gradually from the sea, on a cruise ship. What a spectacular site. And Aruba is as busy as ever, no signs of a slowing ecconomy here.



Maybe a few more pictures later and hopefully some updates to my Chapter Thirteen.

My family, by the way, first time here, loved it!

Confusion over June 13th Police Statement by Joran van der Sloot.

This particular statement has been puzzling. The translation floating around had it as "Deepak came with two dogs." What is interesting is that the Kalpoe household has no dogs. And although Joran's family does have two dogs, Deepak wouldn't have had access to them. The "two dogs" translation doesn't seem to relate to anything in this case.
What seems more likely is that Joran actually said, "I called Deepak and he came with the Honda." The words, "twee honden" (two dogs), as written by the transcriber (deposition reporter), most likely was said by Joran as the similarly sounding "de Honda" (the Honda). Deepak's car was that silver Honda we heard so much about.

Here is the link in Gallery 6:


[noevidenceofacrime.com]


This was indeed the purpose to try and understand and bring some degree of clarity to these statements. With this new interpretation I believe that is what we have done.

This is a comment about Chapter 1, page 5, concerning Carla Caccavale, the family spokesperson. Knowing the family for less than a week and never having known Natalee, I find it rather humorous she would speak of Natalee's character with such emphasis. Carla also misspoke when she said Natalee had a perfect 4.0 average when that is not true. It was only 4.0, when weighted, which is not how GPAs are referred. She did not sound her best in that interview for sure.

Just to summarize the main ingredients I currently believe should be put into the 'stew of truth'. Rationales for using these ingredients are all in this comment section. The proof is in the eating of course and I hope that consumption will spark off unexpected ideas that connect all dots.

* Joran and Natalee were dropped off at the Moomba beach around 1:40/50.
* The Kalpoes went home and stayed home that night.
* Joran did not have the capacity, guts or tools to make a body vanish forever from Aruba all by himself.
* He did not make any other cell phone calls than the 8-minute chat with Deepak at 2:26.
* He must have met some people who helped him within (barefoot) walking distance from the Moomba beach.
* These helpers must have been motivated to take control of Natalee and to dispose off her body later.
* Joran was dropped off by car at his house by his helpers and he did not walk home barefoot (i.e. he lied to Deepak).
* Joran left Natalee alive but 'passed out' in the hands of the helpers.
* Joran was therefore still in a reasonably positive/optimistic shape on May 30th (all day, although a bit tired).
* Joran did meet Freddy on May 30th afternoon and did tell him the HI-"lie" since he believed Natalee would be there.
* He only started to panick when he learned around 2AM May 31st that Natalee had gone missing.

Who dares (easy one for Polemic, since 'crack house' essay scores very high)?

I understand there is some talk at present that none of the translated PV's are very accurate at all, owing to the fact that Joran doesn't speak good Dutch, rather a mix of Papi and Dutch. (per a Dutch poster) If that is correct, conversations around same are futile at best, imo.

Owing to problems with Deepaks lawsuit: not coming up with certain legal documents has me thinking he does know more about what has happened to Natalee however at present I hold the thoughts that he cannot reveal more due to the (un) safety for himself and his family. jmho.

Things I've concluded from the new interrogation scripts

As I have read through the new script style dialogs of the witness interviews I have gained a new appreciation for the case. I had tried to wade through these as the translated PV's, but I found the strange construction to be tedious and hard to follow. The way they originally rewrote these simple Q and A interviews to make them into signable first person statements so that the questions are rephrased as though the witness is restating the whole question and then adding the incessant, "according to me" bits, is enough to drive you nuts. The new way is wonderful. They are actual question and answers and very pleasant to read. It was like finding out about the case from a brand new perspective.

I have come up with a few now which I will add as replies to my own topic one by one. I'm sure I (and others) will have similarly new (or just more enlightened) observations.

New Addition to Book - Witness Interviews in True form

I have been working on what I feel is a remarkable addition to my book. I have always had all of the witness interview documents (entitled "Proces Verbaals," a Dutch legal term for a meeting's transcribed minutes). Those are found in my book's galleries, entitled, "Aruban Legal Documents I and II." I have now added a Gallery 6, called, "Legal Dialogs." I have been rewriting these interview statements, not changing the content, but presenting them in a "script style presentation," the true way the police interviews were actually conducted.

Even if you have read these before, please read them again, and see the difference when you experience this improved format. Showing an interview in a true representation of a question and answer session gives a very different perspective. Some of them are quite amazingly revealing and very interesting.

In the right side panel (on any chapter page in the book) in the drop down menu, just select the title, "Legal Dialogs." I will be completing these in the next few days, intending to do all the "Proces verbaals" for Joran, Paul, the Kalpoe brothers and other witnesses.

Here is the link to the new feature: [noevidenceofacrime.com]

Just so you know there are some mistakes regarding Natalee's friends in your book.

On page 9 of chapter 1 the top picture is not from Aruba (nor is there any alcohol). The correct abbreviation is Mtn. Brook. Mt. abbreviates "Mount".

On page 22 of chapter 1 that is not a picture of Beau.

One page 24 of chapter 1 that is a picture of the boy on vacation.

On page 34, the picture was taken on New Year's and not in Aruba.

Let's try a radically different scenario. All tunnelvision aside. It's simple.

Suppose Joran is completely innocent of anything. He only embarked on a sequence of stupid lies since he was trying to cover up a highly irresponsable act of leaving a girl )now missing) behind on a dark beach whilst having another girlfriend at the same time and not being allowed out there by his parents on a school's night.

By chosing this stupid self-incriminating path, he actually turned all spotlights on himself and kept the real perpetrators fully in the shadow. As a 17 year old he got entangled in his own web of lies and suffered from this so much that he started to tell stupid stories to Patrick and Greta. Even the ABC interview or his book, in which he honestly tried to rehabilitate himself, had the opposite effect and only back fired.

Now, what if Joran walked home in reality as he told Deepak in the 2:26 call. And he indeed did leave Natalee 'passed out' or asleep on the beach. The only reason he never admitted walking home, is that it would make him an even bigger coward. Girl passes out and he quickly sneaks out barefoot? Now, that would be suspicious! Better to tell them Deepak or Satish gave me a ride. But in the 2:26 call he did pass on detailed information to Deepak that there was a pretty girl lying on a dark beach and he approximately even knew the location. Hmmm.

Deepak went on chatting with Croes. He was tired and fed up from driving Natalee around and working until 10PM. He also kept sending messages to Joran and encountered in a short MSN monologue with him, so he was at home at least until 3:30AM. Deepak is therefore unlikely to have gone out again. But what about Satish? His only alibi is that he was asleep. What if Deepak told him to check Joran out, jump in the car and indeed see if she was still there. One scenario is that this was a courtesy of a more responsible Deepak who sent his brother to check her condition (unlikely, since he would have mentioned that to Joran), but another scenario is that Satish was awake, overheard the conversation and some naughtier plans developed in his head. So, with Deepak's approval, Satish jumped in the Honda and drove back to the beach. In the mean time, Deepak kept checking with Joran (2:46 text message + MSN dialogue) that their paths wouldn't cross eachother. This brings Satish and Natalee together on the beach and something bad could have happened. Even Satish then driving into the Salinja area and Deepak's car being spotted by the Gardener around 3AM (and the Gardener only being wrong about the number of people in the car due to the darkish windows).

Satish guilty. Deepak protecting his little brother.

This would explain quite a few things:
1. The rumor that Deepak panicked when the Gardener reported having seen his car.
2. The very simple lie that both brothers needed to remember. Deepak was on-line. Satish went to sleep. For the rest they only needed to tell the truth about 'poor' Joran and how they dropped him off.
3. There's a great motivation for both Satish and Deepak to join the HI-lie. Joran was the last one with her, so he had to do all the subsequent lying and waffling after the HI-lie broke.
4. The fact that neither Kalpoe have ever attempted to publicly fight back to Joran. Nor that they ever sewed the OM for the time they spent in jail (esp. the second time). Total radio silence from their lawyers as well.
5. One of the reason of the December 2007 arrest was that Kalpoe had made a phone call at 6AM on May30th to a girlfriend in Suriname and he sounded worried and told her about bad events happening.
6. All the reasons why I believed Satish did not pick up Joran (posted earlier) do evaporate in this scenario since Joran and Satish did not meet that night. Even the sarcastic statement by Satish "yeah sure, I picked you up, didn't I?" is correct. Joran did tell many different stories and that made it so easy for the Kalpoes to stick with their collective simple story. Very smart of the Kalpoes to keep the pressure on Joran but telling ALE that Freddy knows, Freddy knows! And then Freddy was put words in his mouth and deeper and deeper Joran sank.
7. There won't be any additional traces of Natalee in the Kalpoe car. She had been there, so finding another hair that matched her DNA didn't give any more info.
8. Maybe Satish appetite for Natalee increased during a private chat between Satish and Joran during Deepak's sanitary stop at the Arashi parking lot (hence Satish not wanting to remember it).
9. Deepak was very interested in Joran's well being that night and kept chasing him to come on-line. Why would he send another 2:46 text message when they had just agreed in the 2:26 call that they would come on-line.
10. The strange fact that it was Deepak who kept contacting Joran that Monday. Joran didn't seem interested in meeting Deepak and did note make attempts. However Deepak even chased him all the way to finally meet in the casino and ended up alone with him when Deepak made the plan to go to a casino in Oranjestad (then PvdS called). Joran did not pro-actively approach Deepak that day and one would expect that if he wanted to concoct the HI-lie. It was the otherway around. Why?
11. Satish missed school the next day (overslept). He must have been very tired.


Thoughts?

I hope it is alright that I share something I recently saw on television. It really struck me as so many seem only fixated on this one case and others seemed obsessed beyond any point of reason with locking these boys up and throwing the key away.

I was watching some real life unsolved crime program a few weeks ago and it was focused on a young woman. There were two cases that really stood out but I do not remember the names of either, sorry.

There was a young Natalee aged girl who was out partying one night and was last seen at 2a.m. in a car with some guy. LE has photo shot of the car at an intersection. The kid was brought in by LE to be investigated which was videotaped. Wise young man had his lawyer present. His answer to ALL questions was, 'on the advice of counsel, I respectfully hereby assert my 5th Amendment right to remain silent. End of case! The mother thinks he may know more or did something to the Natalee imitation. But I doubt any of you ever heard of this case despite the circumstances being exactly the same as Joran/Natalee with merely a change of scenery. The girl has been missing for a number of years. Cops interviewed for the story believe she got piss drunk, drugged and died on her own. For you see most people are more concerned with what happened BEFORE that may have led to death; rather than assuming their loved one dead and not caring about the death, rather the body.

Another girl Kristen something ... was at Cal Poly and also went missing. She got attention because of the Scott Peterson case but he was cleared of any connection.

There were a plethora of cases with same story and same family members concerned about whereabouts of their daughters.

Strikingly, NONE of these mothers and/or fathers wrote books, made public accusations with the intent to slander another person, or lied about the actions of LE. All of these cases remain unsolved.

Now if Beth Twitty could explain to all these mothers why HER daughter is any more important, I would like to hear it. I find nothing about Natalee that should or would catapult her into fame if her mother did not willfully and intentionally lie to ALE, FBI and the public to divert attention away from her daughter's bad behavior. I think a refund and public apology is in order.

Is there some way the font could be made bigger in this area? Gosh, there are some good discussions going on here but it is a bit hard for me to read, LOL!

I believe the main ingredients for a successful scenario are:

* A cause for Natalee to die (in the presence of Joran or later).
* A strong motive for Joran to lie about his involvement in the events.
* A motivated 'body disposal capability' that Joran could have contacted that night without a phone.

How about this slightly tweaked M&SWM scenario (a blend between the Crack house essay from the book and the M&SWM scenario):

1. J&N are dropped off at the beach North of the Marriott.
2. K2 leave and drive home. S. goes asleep. D. goes on computer.
3. J&N walk in the direction of the HI.
4. They take off their shoes in front of the Marriott.
5. N. doesn't want to go back to the HI, so they agree to walk north towards the 'lovers lane'.
6. They sit down in the sand. Suddenly Natalee falls asleep and after while doesn't recover.
7. Joran Panicks and looks for help.
8. M&SWM are walking north from HI and Joran approaches them.
9. M&SWM walk back with Joran. They see Natalee is not dead, but that's she's indeed not well.
10. MC&SWM take charge and tell J. that he will get in trouble for this.
11. But hey buddy, you're very lucky you met us. We can help you.
12. Their motive to help Joran is either a planned rape or to bring her to a choller house friend to do the 'sleep out' trick and get some money for that.
13. Natalee is pulled back into the bushes. The men tell Joran to wait.
14. MC&SWN are seen near HI around 2:30. They get into their white car and drive to the beach(spotted by fisherman).
15. Natalee is loaded in the car and they drive to Salinja area (spotted by gardener).
16. Joran calls Deepak at 2:26 to tell Deepak he's walking home barefoot. He then gets dropped off at this house.
17. Joran is reasonable relaxed that night. Goes on his PC. She's not in the best hands, but hey she'll probably survive.
18. Natalee maybe recovers in a crack house and the people involved panick or she dies when she is assaulted by M&SWM.
19. Joran only embarks on the HI-lie after he gets the call from his dad. Then he knows things could be worse than expected. He manages to incriminate the Kalpoes. Beth et al help turning spotlights on J2K.
20. Marlon manages to incriminate the security guys. Then he leaves the island.
21. Few days later J. receives the message that "she'll never be found" and a very strong warning to not talk to anybody about this... ...otherwise...

On p148 of DZNH Joran writes that he 'broke' during a sequence of tough interogations and he then finally told ALE that the HI-story was a lie. It's remarkable that the first-next lie, was that Deepak dropped him off at his house and then drove off with Natalee. That's exactly the backbone of the scenario above, however without Deepak as the main character. Maybe ALE have never been closer to getting the truth from Joran as at that moment...

I've tried to develop many scenario's in the last few years (as good as it gets, and of course only based on what's publicly available and sometimes combined with rumours). They all had some major flaws in the end, or were unnecessary complex and/or comprised of highly unlikely elements. However, this scenario still feels feasible. It nicely fits the timelines, the PV's, the early focus on Marlon (4/6), it explains Joran's shoes, the 'barefoot' chat with Deepak, the gardener statement, it also provides Joran with a motive to lie until today, it has the key elements of the Daury story, it explains the 'they were on the beach' in Freddy's PV, Marlon and white man's vanishing from the island/HI-area, Marlon being in prison today for a similar event on that beach(!) But, most importantly:

it links, at that time of night, on that specific Moomba beach location, 'a 17 year old innocent boy with a natural and imminent inclination to lie' (i.c. Joran), with 'a potentially frustrated, body-disposal capability, that pushed a relatively small event into a crime'.

This lethal cocktail was fatal for Natalee and Joran's subsequent lies have:
1. distracted ALE from Marlon & friend and turned the spotlights on J2K (reenforced by pressures from Beth et al).
2. self-entrenched Joran so deeply into the mud, that even today it is impossible for him to tell the truth (it would turn him into the biggest loser on earth, nobody would believe him since he probably doesn't have any 'perpetrator' specific knowledge to share and he might put his family on Aruba at risk...)

Premises:
1. Kalpoes are innocent (logic on [www.hollowaycase.com]).

2. So, Joran lies about walking home barefoot. His motive was not that it looked suspicious to walk home barefoot but Joran was afraid of being home too quickly wrt to the 2:26 call and his MSN chat. This is based on a section from the Daury transcript in which Patrick just tries to understand why Joran didn't just tell ALE that he had walked home rather than incriminating the Kalpoes as the ones he pick-up him up. Why so complicated? Why incriminate the Kalpoes? Joran tells him that he was worried about how FAST he got home and he must have done this since he needed to conceal the fact that he got home by car. Hence I believe that Joran was dropped off by someone (guess Marlon/SWM).

3. There is no evidence that Joran was a hardened criminal who could dispose off a body all by himself (not a single plausible scenario is sufficiently compelling). So, he needed help. But it's a fact that there weren't any phone calls made and that the pay phone near the Marriott was international calls only. The only way to reach out for help/partners in crime is f2f encounter on the beach.

4. Between 1:00AM - 2:30AM time, a known criminal Marlon + skinny white man is reportedly seen on the beach north of the HI. Marlon is currently in jail for harassing a teen girl who was accompanied by a boy (sounds familiar?). And guess where it happened? At the Moomba beach. Marlon then disappeared from the island shortly after he was heard by ALE on June 4th. Marlon returned after a month. Skinny white man has never been seen again.

In a nutshell:
1. J&N are dropped off North of the Marriott.
2. D&S leave and drive home. S goes asleep. D on computer.
3. J&N walk in the direction of the HI.
4. They take off their shoes in front of the Marriott.
5. N. doesn't want to go back to the HI, so they agree to walk north.
6. M&SWM are walking north from HI and spot the shoes.
7. M is frustrated with the MB-group due incidents earlier that week.
8. He thinks: "two have drifted away from the group" so they are my 'prey'.
9. M&SWM walk north and spot J&N fiddling in the sand.
10. Fight/harassment starts. N. collapses due to stress/alcohol/panick.
11. MC&SWM take charge and tell J. to wait. They add a threat to shut his face.
12. N's body is pulled back into the bushes. Men walk south.
13. MC&SWN are spotted near HI around 2:30.
14. They get into their white car and drive to the body (spotted by fisherman).
15. Body is loaded in the car and they drive to Salinja area (spotted by gardener).
16. Joran calls Deepak at 2:26 to tell Deepak he's walking home. He then gets dropped off at this house.
17. Body gets disposed off somewhere on the island or into the ocean.
18. Joran embarks on the HI-lie and manages to incriminate the Kalpoes. Beth et al help buring the spotlights on J2K.
19. Marlon manages to incriminate the security guys. Then he leaves the island.
20. Few days later J. receives the message that "she'll never be found".

Scenarios to connect Joran and M&SWM:
1. Joran left Natalee asleep, walked south, saw the dangerous men with already his sneekers in his hand and decided to take a sharp turn left and run home barefoot. His motive to lie: "I was so embarassed that I hadn't gone back to warn/protect Natalee for these evil guys that I decided to lie." On the other hand, there was no direct thread, he hasn't been a witness of a crime, so why not just tell the truth and point your finger in the direction of the dangerous blokes? Is the risk of losing your 'gentleman' status in the eyes of family/friends really a good enough reason to explain his continuous lies?

2. Joran left Natalee asleep, walked south, saw the dangerous men with already his sneekers in his hand and decided to take a sharp turn left, he then hides in the bushes to see what's happening next. He witnesses that Natalee get's raped by the man and/or dies of convulsions but he doesn't intervene. His motive to lie is similar to 1, but he might have entrenched himself even more by the HI-lie. Having been a witness of a crime and then still lying yourself out of it instead of speaking up, is when done for too long, a plausible motive to conceal the truth forever (who would believe him anyway).

3. Natalee suddenly just dies of convulsions. Joran panicks and rushes home barefoot. The two man spot Natalee and dispose off her body. This is a highly unlikely scenario since a hardened criminal wouldn't be very interested in disposing off a dead body they hadn't killed (and let's please rule out the concept of necrophelia...).

4. Natalee dies of convulsions. Joran panicks, looks around and approaches the two men. Joran holds something against Marlon or knows him from the past and they tell him he's in deep #@*%!. He's sent home and they take care of the rest. Although it sounds more likely, it still doesn't make sense that a criminal not involved in a crime would help Joran to mask it.

5. The two men spot Joran and Natalee lying on the beach (they know there is a couple somewhere there since they've seen the shoes on the beach). Marlon could have been '#@*%!ed up' (<- ) by events with the MB group earlier that week (there are reports about incidents with chollers/beach bums) and is looking for some revenge. There is a fight with pushing/pulling. There is a knife. Natalee panicks and dies of convulsions. Now they're all in the same boat and have a collective motive to cover this up. Joran is ordered to go home. The men dispose of the body. Joran lies in jail since he's afraid Marlon will hurt his family if he speaks up. It's very important for him to not tell the truth about how he got home since that's very difficult to explain.

I'm leaning towards 5. In that scenario Joran is innocent, but has lied so much now that he can't tell the truth anymore. Nobody would believe him. Body is in the ocean and won't come back. Marlon will just deny, so there's absolutely nothing to gain for Joran. At the same time scenario 4 is very much in line with the main elements of the Daury story. He didn't murder Natalee, he had panicked, he had "professional" helper(s), he was told by them to go home, he walked home barefoot, K2 were innocent, there was a "sure" ocean disposal

Since Marlon is in jail now anyway for harassing another girl on the Moomba beach (!) and ALE have run out of leads but are reluctant to close the case, why not have an undercover cellmate parked close to Marlon and try to provoke him on what he knows about that night...?

But I'm still mulling over a scenario in which the two men grabbed a living but maybe 'passed out' Natalee and took her to a crack house where she potentially lived for a few days to 'sleep out'. Their motive was then to get a ransom. Nicely fits the island buzz those early days.

Just took another look at Joran's many lies in the context of a scenario in which he was dropped off by car at his house by some criminal friends (like Marlon & SWM):

The backbone is from Jon's hollowaycase site, but I added quite few things:

On Joran's mind: The Kalpoes know they have dropped me off on the beach. I'm now in the car with my criminal helpers. I need to tell then something now, but I can't tell them that I'm getting a ride.

•According to Deepak, at 2:26 am on May 30, Joran told him he had left Natalee passed out on the beach, and was walking home barefoot since he had left his shoes on the beach. (this story is basically Joran's word against Deepak's and it can't be easily falsified since the time slot between the 2:26 call near McDonalds and being on-line on his computer around 3:20 could be feasible. However, when pushed by Patrick to explain why he kept incriminating the Kalpoes later as his pick-up instead of just telling ALE that he did walk home, Joran replied that he was afraid the timelines wouldn't fit and that he would arrive home too soon. See this post for details: [www.refugeesunleashed.net] In his later lies he had been caught out on the text message quite a few times.)

On Joran's mind: I need to get the Kalpoes involved in a shared story. A collective hotel drop-off is a great idea. And a drop-off at my house is also a great idea, since I was home quite quick and someone might have seen a car that dropped me off.

•According to Joran's friend Freddy, on May 31, Joran told him that the Kalpoes dropped him off at his house, after they all left Natalee passed out on the beach. Note that this story could have been told to Freddy already on May 30th as Freddy claims in his statements. If that's true it sounds more like a warming up for the HI-lie that was agreed later in the night with Deepak after PvdS called Joran at the casino. On that Monday afternoon Joran of course was not sure the Kalpoes would buy into the story. But 'coño mama', how shrewd he was to incriminate these stupid Kalpoe brothers who I only used for their pimped car and they are not even worth it, Patrick...

On Joran's mind: Pfew. Kalpoes bought into the HI-lie. Coño mama, I'm shrewd. Now hope everything gets quiet again.

•From May 30 or 31 through June 10, Joran claimed they left Natalee at her hotel. (the famous HI-lie. This was falsified by firstly by the Kalpoes both changing their story after they got arrested and it was further re-inforced by Freddy who informed Paul & Anita about what Joran had told him. Then the HI-lie became unsustainable. Please note that it was not the hotel camera that didn't record Natalee at the HI-lobby entrance. That camera was simply broken.)

On Joran's mind: They are mind #@*%!ing with me and I don't believe that the Kalpoes are telling bad stories about me. But wait a minute. What if they got so scared after the arrest that they opted out of the HI-lie? That's not good. Best is to keep the pressure on them. My word against their word. Esp. have to watch Deepak since I've told him I walked home barefoot and that is not a good fallback scenario since I lied it to Deepak and within timelines infeasible

• On June 10th, Joran told his lawyer and ALE that Deepak had dropped him off first at his house and then drove off with Natalee to drop her off at the hotel. This lie was easily falisified via Deepak's statement that there was a text message from Joran that night that he would 'come on-line after he got home' and/or 'to miscall him when he got home'.

•From June 10 through June 13, Joran claimed that the Kalpoes (according to Joran's book P148/9, he only accused Deepak and that he drove off on his own with Natalee. Joran claims it was Deepak who had insisted on making the HI drop-off includive of Satish, since that would sound more trustworthy) dropped him off at his house and drove off with Natalee. This is confirmed by Abraham Jones after he was released from jail. Jones had heard Joran crying in the cell next to him and he had told him he’s afraid the Kalpoes “setting him up”. Joran also told him that he was dropped off at home first and then Natalee left with Kalpoes in their car. This lie was also easily falsified by the 'come on-line after I got home' text messages

On Joran's mind: Ok. HI-lie is gone. I can't deny the beach drop-off any longer and will admit that I was on my own with Natalee. But ouch! They will now ask me how I got home. Since I was dropped off by car and I don't know the precise time between the 2:26 call and the computer messages, I can't use that. Wait a minute. I just tell them Deepak picked me up! Still gives me the car at the beach and near the house and explains why I was home so fast.

•From June 13 through June 19, Joran claimed Deepak picked him up, and he left Natalee asleep on the beach. This lie was easily falsified by confronting Joran with the text message: "Hey thanks, swa. Good night. I'm home. Are you on-line"

On Joran's mind: Ok. Deepak couldn't have picked me. Let's try Satish.

•Since June 19, Joran has claimed that Satish picked him up, and either on that date or later, he began claiming he left Natalee awake on the beach looking at the stars.This lie is where Joran got extremely lucky that Satish didn't have an alibi. They were confronted with eachother in front a judge and emotions went up high but the truth got stuck in the middle. After that Joran's strategy was to keep his mouth shut.

On Joran's mind: Great. Got them completely stuck now. No alibi for Satish. No body. No case. Only need to keep my mouth shut. Nothing can happen to me. I won. I'm the greatest!

And then he met Patrick and revealed his next set of lies. However this time he did inject some tiny bits of the truth about how Natalee died and that he had helper(s).

And then he told Greta for money that he sold Natalee (probably also to support the idea that the Daury story was a complete bogus as well).

Nice work with the forum and the web-book, Jan! (as always )

What a weird case this is. I sincerely hope it will be solved one day.

I believe Joran was there when Natalee collapsed (could be GHB related) and that he did get help similar to the "Daury" story. I do believe th crux is two key questions:

1. Did Satish pick up Joran? I believe not and have posted the underlying logic for that assumption elsewhere already a few times. This therefore leaves Joran lying about how he got home. I first thought that his lie was to avoid difficult questions about why he walked home (sounds suspicious), but after reading the Daury tapes a few times more, I now believe he didn't want to say he walked home since he was too afraid to have been home too soon to be feasible (with hind side knowledge, Joran now also knows that the walking scenario actually might fit the phone/computer records. although it is tight). So, this leaves only one transport option open and that is Joran was brought home by someone else (also check how consistently he injected a car in all his subsequent lies after the HI-lie broke). The reason Joran trapped himself in the "barefoot-story" is that in the stress of the moment he had to call Deepak to tell him that he was walking home (he couldn't of course betray his helper(s) with the car). Since Joran's mind was about "what do I tell the K2, who will say they dropped me off" and "#@*%!, I'm in the car barefoot, but my shoes are still on the beach", he mentioned it to Deepak. After that, there was no way back for Joran. After the HI-lie broke, Joran lost his ally and was suddenly exposed to a honest Deepak. He there decided to bring up the shoe story pro-actively. Attack is the best defense sometimes.

2. How can a 17 year old dispose of a body? In fact, I don't believe he could do that all by himself. Disposal via air (plane, hang glider), Ocean (push body, boat), Land (bury, dumpster) are simply not sufficiently compelling. Joran must have had help and luck. Since there weren't any phone calls made and I assume PvdS does not play any part in this (e.g. woken up by Joran after he rushed home), nor do I believe Guido W. is involved (e.g. Joran running to HI casino and contacting Guido via pool phone), then the only option left is that he encountered somebody on the beach who helped him. Some kind of disposal capability. Many scenarios could be developed on a continuum in which at one extreme Joran is helped by some filantropic beach friend (highly unlikely) and on the other extreme Natalee was harassed/killed in the presence of Joran and he was told to shut his face. I think some scenarios with shared guild in the middle are most realistic. Marlon and a slim white man known to be on the beach that night, are interesting collusion candidates and maybe Aruba Boeti (e.g. as the provider of GHB) is another. Marlon has just been re-arrested for harassing a woman and has a track record. He also disappeared from the island for a while and allegedly was the one who incriminated the security guards (Jones & John) in the early days.

Maybe one last piece of "bluf-poker" by ALE to check what Marlon really knows about Natalee and/or to put some ALE-ears in the same prison cell with him, could give this case the final push it needs.

Jan,
Thank you for taking the time to summarize the possibilities.
What a mystery.
Since Natalee and Maddie McCann, I almost hate to follow a new crime.
The never solved make me crazy.

I just do not understand Jorans statements and admissions in the past few years.
It seemed senseless/damaging to do what he did...fee or not.
I feel so bad for his parents. They must want to muzzle him at times...lol.

I will continue to wish for some scientific breakthrough that enables the truth to be
discovered from the human brain. Wouldn't that be nice?

I tend to think that Joran does know more, but with his zany confessions who knows what that might be?

I just saw the Lifetime Movie last night for the first time. I actually read about the movie here in Chapter 20, as it was nicely promoted here in this book. I was rather surprised by that. Having been told that this book was biased I did not expect to see a beautiful chapter devoted to Beth. I used to follow this case and always wondered what happened to the girl lost in Aruba. After viewing the movie so many of the scenes in the movie I remembered from the cable news shows. While the acting was not the best (I've seen better Lifetime Movies) it still seems to be what happened from the perspective of Natalee's mom. I think this story is so complicated that it would be hard to get the whole of it in an 80 minute production. Parts seemed skimmed over and too fast paced. I was puzzled by Natalee's father leaving abruptly as I remember him searching for days and days. I guess the best parts of the movie were two things, showing that the main suspects, at least Van der Sloot are still under suspicion and the other message certainly should be for parents to alert their young people when they travel as there are unknown dangers in other countries. I think the movie though is a good guide and back up for this book. The movie is sort of the cliff note version and this book has everything. I am glad I finally saw the movie though and my thoughts and prayers go out to Natalee's family. I'm also glad to have this book as it fills in so many things that I never even knew about.

I am not exactly sure how this all works here so I hope it is ok if I begin a new topic about how much I have enjoyed reading this book. I was reading on a Woman's forum where they were discussing the Lifetime Movie and found the link to the book several weeks ago. I have been here many times since because it is so complete with the facts of the case like nothing I have found anywhere else on the internet. I am not much for message boards so never could get into the Scared Monkey site or others. I prefer my facts without a lot of commentary and that is just the way this book was written. A person can begin with Chapter 1 and see how the media tackled this case right through Chapter 2 with every minute of the first month it is really so complete. I have much more to read but for any students of crime stories this is like an encyclopedia. Actually the movie when you compare it to the details found in this book was rather weak and very sketchy. It was more like a tribute by her mom I believe to honor her daughter and keep the story alive. I think this book sort of does that too. And I have found it very fair.

The Short Skirt Mystery

I post at BFN (BlogsforNatalee), but I was hesitant to post what I am going to say here, because I would get shouted down and I don't want to get banned there. But, I took a look at the so-called new ABC video from 11/29/2007, which is actually linked to several times in the BFN thread on this. Here is the url:

abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3922731&affil=wlne

Well, over on BFN several people think that the new still photos published in the noevidenceofacrime book are phony because of Natalee's skirt is so short. They thought that someone had made the skirt short to make Natalee look cheap and tawdry. Well, I was looking at the "new" ABC video and looking at the still images and you know what I noticed? Natalee's skirt is the same length in both (if anything the ABC shots are even more revealing). Now, I don't think that makes her cheap, skirts do ride up and that's probably what happened. After noticing that, I did a screen captures just using my Windows Prnt Screen thing on one of the new still images and then one from the video, which I paused at a similar view. I pasted them into Windows Paint and typed in my captions. Then I uploaded them to my photobucket account. I will show my comparision here:



I think that anybody thinking that someone shortened her skirt (in either video) is just being ridiculous.